ICM Part 2: The Bubble



The key to using the Independent Chip Model (ICM) is making choices that have a positive expectation over time. In Part One, we went over the calculation of a player's current chip stack as a dollar value. Now we can move forward and make decisions based on that information. In the example used in Part One, we worked out the equity of five players remaining in an $11 nine-player sit-and-go: Player 1: 1,740 chips = $15 Player 2: 835 chips = $8 Player 3: 1,585 chips = $14 Player 4: 2,590 chips = $20 Player 5: 6,750 chips = $33 Let's say Player 5 eliminates Player 3 on the very next hand. Player 5 now has 8,335 chips and is in an ideal position on the bubble. The new equity values are as follows: Player 1: 1740 chips = $19 Player 2: 835 chips = $10 Player 4: 2590 chips = $24 Player 5: 8335 chips = $37 Even though Player 5 collected all of Player 3's chips, the equity of every player increases because the removal of one player at the table improves the chances of everyone making money. With four players still alive and the top three places paying, it becomes a survival game for the short stacks. Thus, the big ...

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