Poker and the Confirmation Bias



A few months ago, I came across a peculiar post in an online poker forum.  At first, it looked like your typical “ZOMG poker is so rigged” rant, but something about this one jumped out at me; take a look and see if you can spot it.  By the way, I’ve heavily edited it for grammar, spelling, and general readability. “Recently, I uncovered some irregularities in my hand histories.  In this sample of 250 to 300 hands, a total of eight hands won when having less than a 5% probability of doing so!  Now, I want to believe that this is just variance and not indicative of results in online poker in general. As such, I have begun to compile a database of unusual hands.  Since I don’t play nearly enough hands to produce a worthwhile sample, I ask that you do the same. It is quite simple, just play your hands and if during the session any really bad beats occur, jot down the hand number and the details. I will create an e-mail address where you can send the data and we can put it all together and see what the results say.” This guy wants to verify whether or ...

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