Poker News > Was Jonathan Duhamel Lucky?


Was Jonathan Duhamel Lucky?

By Dan Katz - Nov 12th, 2010

The 2010 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event has finally ended and now comes the hangover, when every armchair poker player says why the World Champ is terrible. This year, that talk revolves around one huge hand, the one on Day 8 back in July when the eventual winner, Jonathan Duhamel, sucked out on the river against Matt Affleck, eliminating Affleck in 15th place. Let's get one thing out of the way first: we all know that Duhamel did not make the perfect play. But contrary to what many casual observers think, it was not by any means outrageous. In calling Affleck's all-in bet, Duhamel had to risk 11.63 million chips to win a total pot (including his call) of 41.71 million. So, Duhamel was contributing just under 28% of the total pot on the turn. On the ESPN telecast before his heads-up battle with John Racener, Duhamel said that he was concerned that Affleck had a set of tens or nines; you could actually hear him ask Affleck if he had either of those hands as they flipped their cards over. Thus, if Duhamel put Affleck on one of those hands, he would have to believe that he had ten ...

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3 Comments

joshuahloyd@yahoo.com   November 17th, 2010 at 9:25 pm

This is one of the best poker articles I have ever read. THanks for putting it in perspective. I will love discussing this now with fellow poker players at the felt.

www_Motodom_com   November 18th, 2010 at 12:38 pm

I came to this by searching for how many times Duhamel was at risk and all in throughout the whole tournament. This article rocked that, by statistically breaking down the odds of all in with best (and even 95%) FAVORITE and still losing. Loved it.

Thanks for adding to my belief that the WSOP winner has to be willing to have a full measure of luck and courage. Sometimes both at the same time. In that sense, the winner has to have a vision through the fear, and a plan, but then finally be blessed with the luck. That and the quantum physics, says there could be anyone of them as winners with just a minor tweak of an atom here and there at the table.

I’m still thinking about the time he folded AA and AK at the final table. I would like to see a rabbit hole cam on EVERY hand, and see the stats for who would have won. Possibly showing who is truly the luckiest by fact, even if he (or SHE) didn’t actually play the hands in the multi day event. Just a virtual count of hands actually could have won if played. Please someone start a RABBIT HOLE CAM for every hand, and show who would have won if had been in the hand. Please?

brian.anim8us@gmail.com   November 18th, 2010 at 3:15 pm

Excellent article. I have a similar take and will link to this article when I publish my notes.

Keep up the good work.

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