The Baluga Theorem in Poker

One post on TwoPlusTwo that stood out this week was someone asking if his fellow micro-stakes players strictly followed the Baluga Theorem. If you haven’t heard of the theorem, it was introduced by a player named Andrew "BalugaWhale" Seidman on the TwoPlusTwo forum almost five years ago. It's a fairly simple concept that says when faced with a turn raise, we should "strongly" re-evaluate one pair hands. We all know that one pair isn't the strongest hand in the world, but if you have something like top pair, top kicker on the turn against a single opponent, it's still generally pretty solid. But when that opponent raises you on the turn in a micro-stakes game, it is very likely that he has you beat. Why would we automatically consider this a near certainty even if we were pretty confident that we had the best hand up until that point? First, micro-stakes players are not sophisticated. That's not an insult. Most of them are either new to the game or play purely for entertainment and don't care to study up enough to get good and move up in stakes. But the bottom line is that most micro-stakes players play an ultra-straightforward game. If they have ...

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