Aaron Rodgers

Everyone knew it was coming

The Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay is over. On Tuesday, the Packers made it official: the future unanimous, stone-cold lock, first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback has been traded to the New York Jets. Despite coming off one of the worst seasons of his career, Rodgers is a significant upgrade for the Jets at the most important position on the team. So how has this affected the team’s Super Bowl odds? In short, not much.

In fact, after the trade was announced, the Jets’ Super Bowl LVIII futures did not move at all. Going into Tuesday, Caesars and most other sportsbooks had the Jets at +1400 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy and after the trade announcement, those odds stayed the same.

Why? Because the betting markets already expected Rodgers to be a Jet. On March 15, Rodgers went on the Pat McAfee show and proclaimed his desire to become New York’s new quarterback. He had met with Jets’ brass already, so everyone knew a trade was inevitable.

Even at that point, the odds didn’t move much. The main point of inflection on the Jets’ Super Bowl odds was on March 7, when Rodgers and the Jets talked about a possible future together, the first time the Packers allowed another team to speak with him. Caesars set the line at +2,000 at that point, a significant shift from the +3,000 at which the team opened after this year’s Super Bowl.

The odds were +1400 when Rodgers made his Pat McAfee Show appearance, but had already been creeping down from March 7, so his announcement served as basically a formality in the eyes of sportsbooks.

There was no indication between now and then that Rodgers would end up anywhere but New York, hence the lack of line movement It was already baked in.

No guarantees

The New York Jets are now the sixth-favorite to win Super Bowl LVIII, according to Caesars, behind defending champs the Kansas City Chiefs (+600), San Francisco 49ers (+700), Buffalo Bills (+850), Philadelphia Eagles (+850), and Cincinnati Bengals (+1,000).

Their biggest obstacle is their division. The Bills still look like the class of the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins are up-and-coming, and the New England Patriots are still coached by Bill Belichick. And then the Chiefs and Bengals will likely be looming come playoff time, if the Jets make it that far.

Of course, the offense is still a question mark. It wasn’t overly talented last season and doesn’t really look that much better this season, except for Rodgers. And again, he is coming off a terrible season, so who knows if that’s who he is now? The defense was incredible last year, though, so if it stays elite and the offense ticks up even a little bit, the Jets could be a Super Bowl contender.

Image credit: Flickr.com / KA Sports Photos

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