It is certainly too soon to issue last rights to Full Tilt Poker (for the second time), but the numbers do not paint a pretty picture since the site completely overhauled its cash game offerings. Full Tilt has lost an enormous number of cash game players, which was not unexpected, but it is ugly, nonetheless.
In late July, Full Tilt abandoned its traditional offerings in which it aimed to be everything to everyone in favor of a new approach, almost strictly catering to recreational players. It made drastic changes to the poker room, including:
• Removal of all heads-up ring games
• Elimination of the traditional lobby in favor of a “quick start” lobby
• Purging of all stud, draw, and mixed games
• Removal of nosebleed stakes
The first two changes above were really the keys to the whole thing. For several years, the online poker industry has been trying to shift its customer population away from high volume, skilled pros to recreational or casual players. Recreational players are generally net losers, distributing their money to various players at the tables. That money, in turn, circulates through the games, helping the poker economy. Because these casual, “just for fun” players tend to lose, they also tend to reload more than better players, injecting more money into the poker economy. Highly skilled amateurs and pros, on the other hand, win money from lesser players and withdraw more often, removing money from poker circulation.
Heads-up games had become a particular problem at Full Tilt, as the tables were filled with “bumhunters.” These bumhunters would sit at multiple tables by themselves, waiting for a weaker player to come along. Because the skilled players have poker analysis software that is able to identify many players as soon as they take a seat, these players know who to avoid. If a good player sits down, the bumhunters simply sit out. When a weaker players comes along, the bumhunters play and, more often than not, win.
Though the players they beat are less skilled at poker and perhaps new to the site, they aren’t stupid. They can quickly tell when they have been picked on. According to Poker Room Manager Shyam Markus, Full Tilt determined that the more a new players tries the heads-up tables in his first month on the site, the less likely he is to come back for a second month.
As for the cash game lobby, that was another situation where the better players picked on the recreational players. Often using seating script software (or just by eyeballing the tables), strong players could hunt casual players throughout the poker room, sitting down with them whenever possible. Like with the heads-up tables, this was easy for casual players to see. They don’t like to get bullied and targeted, so they eventually leave. Now, players can no longer choose tables; they simply pick a game and stakes and are automatically seated.
The other two main changes – removal of nosebleed stakes and other games – were mainly because of low demand.
Naturally, the changes meant that the primary money making games for pros were gone. Those pros and other high volume, skilled players had to leave Full Tilt and go elsewhere to earn a living. As such, Full Tilt’s cash game traffic has dropped 30 percent in only about two weeks. Just before the changes were made, Full Tilt’s seven-day average cash game traffic was 1,000 players, according to PokerScout.com. It is now sitting at 700. Prior to Black Friday, Full Tilt Poker was second only to PokerStars in terms of traffic. Even though it has not reclaimed that level since its rebirth, it has always been comfortably in the top ten of PokerScout’s rankings. Now it is in danger of dropping out of the top ten with MPN and Adjarabet tied for 11th with 600 players.
Again, this was expected, but it’s still a little shocking to see. The hope for Full Tilt that as the pros leave and the site is more dense with recreational players, customers will enjoy themselves more and stay longer. As the quality of the games improve, more players will hear about it and deposit. Should it all work out, things would snowball and Full Tilt will grow once again.
