Sounds like a lot overlay ahead

GGPoker has revealed the details of the 2023 GGMasters Overlay Edition tournament, the second time the event will run. Scheduled to begin February 19, the tournament has a $10 million guarantee, but only a $150 price point. That guaranteed prize pool is double that of last year’s inaugural Overlay Edition.

There are three Day 1A flights on February 19, one for players in Asia, one for Europe, and one for the Americas. On February 25, there is but one Day 1B, while Day 1C echoes the first flight on February 26. There are two more Day 1Ds on Monday, February 27, which is the same day as Day 2, the final day of the tournament.

The key to the GGMasters Overlay Edition is that it is one of the few big tournaments you will find nowadays that is actually a freezeout. One entry per person and that’s it. Re-entry events rarely have overlays, as players can naturally enter multiple times, building up the prize pool.

But with a $10 million guarantee and a $138 buy-in (the tournament fee is $12), GGPoker will need 72,464 unique players to enter in order to avoid an overlay. GGPoker is the most popular poker room on the internet by far, but it is very unlikely that it will draw over 70,000 players to a single tournament.

Daniel Negreanu putting his money where his mouth is

In fact, there is a 100% chance that there will be an overlay, thanks to Daniel Negreanu, GGPoker’s most visible ambassador.

“I’m so confident that this will miss [the guaranteed prize pool] that if I’m wrong and the prize pool reaches more than $9,000,000, I will personally use my own money to increase the final overlay to $1,000,000. That’s right – DNegs is guaranteeing a $1 million overlay!”

So now we know that the minimum overlay that players will enjoy is $1 million. For any prize pool above $9 million, Negreanu will add to it so that there is a $1 million overlay. Anything under $9 million and there is more than a million, anyway.

If last year’s tournament is any indication, Negreanu’s money is safe. The first GGMasters Overlay Edition drew 33,806 players, which is phenomenal, but nowhere close to what is needed this time around. With a guarantee of $5 million in 2022, GGPoker still had to make up $334,772 in overlay. Of course, more people could show up this year, but a 40,000-player gap is big one.

The popularity of the 2022 edition caused problems for GGPoker, as well. Technical problems, which the online poker room said stemmed from so many people trying to play, caused some players from being unable to take their seats or deposit funds. Some satellite tournaments closed before they began and some even shut down mid-stream. The entire tournament still went through to the end, but it was a frustrating time on the first day for many.

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