If you caught our first-ever National Football League predictions for Week One last Sunday, you learned a fact really quick about sports betting – breaking even isn’t nice to do. To be able to make a profit out of sports betting, you MUST be able to win, preferably around a 60/40 clip, if not better. The reason for this? Not only do you have to be able to cover your losses, but you ALSO must be able to cover the “juice,” the vig, the cage fee that is charged on your bets. You don’t cover that, you’re not a winning sports bettor.
We’re going to look back at the NFL Week One, examine where we were right and where we were OH, SO mistaken. This is also something else you must do to be a skillful bettor in any gaming enterprise – be able to honestly examine your work, look for where you might have made your mistakes, and correct those mistakes accordingly.
PICK #1 – San Francisco 49ers v. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Pick – Steelers +2.5
Result – San Francisco 30, Pittsburgh 7 (LOSS)
It turns out, after all, that San Fran is for real. The 49ers came into Steel City and completely bashed the formerly intimidating Steel Curtain into aluminum foil. QB Brock Purdy turned out to be more than Mr. Irrelevant and, behind the all-around attack of RB Christian McCaffery, the Niners completely humiliated the Black and Gold.
This isn’t to say that the Steelers were ALL terrible. They did some good things on defense, with a trio of sacks. But the complete ineptitude of QB Kenny Pickett and a lack of anything that resembled an offensive scheme makes you wonder if the once-vaunted Steelers are headed for the basement in the extremely difficult AFC Central (alongside Baltimore, Cleveland, and Cincinnati). This pick was a complete miss, admittedly.
PICK #2 – Green Bay Packers v. CHICAGO BEARS
Pick – Packers +1.5
Result – Green Bay 38, Chicago 20 (WIN)
As wrong as we were about the previous game, we nailed completely the results from the flying saucer in the Windy City known as Soldier Field. Pack QB Jordan Love came out like he was a four-year veteran of the NFL (well, he IS a four-year veteran of the NFL!) and shredded the “Monsters of the Midway” into confetti during NFL Week One. Having a decent running game will help you do that, which makes watching the injury progression of RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) through the final practices of the week intriguing.
Bears QB Justin Fields was pretty much a man on an island for the Bears O in the game. Fields was the leading rusher for the team, passed for a touchdown, and if he could have gone out on pass patterns, he probably would have been the leading receiver too. While Fields did lose a fumble, you can’t fault a guy who is basically the only Bears offensive player who seemed to have an interest in the game. Surround Fields with some talent, quick…or send him somewhere that might utilize his talents more than the Chicago coaching staff is.
PICK #3 – Dallas Cowboys v. NEW YORK GIANTS
Pick – OVER 45.5
Result – Dallas 40, New York Giants 0 (LOSS)
That’s right…nada. Goose egg. Zip. The bloated corpse that was the New York Giants on the turf in Gotham on Sunday night couldn’t even muster a field goal against the Pokes. If the Giants had even gotten a touchdown – not even the extra point, just get it across the goal line – we cover with our bet.
I’m not going to blame this on QB Daniel Jones, who spent most of Sunday night running for his life from Cowboys LB Micah Parsons, but I AM going to put it on the coaching staff for pushing their franchise QB back out on the field in the fourth quarter, in the middle of a driving rainstorm, when there was ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LEFT TO PLAY FOR. If Jones had pulled an Aaron Rodgers in the fourth quarter, the torches would have been out for the head of the ownership of Los Gigantes.
It isn’t as if the Cowboys lit it up offensively either. QB Dak Prescott was less-than-stellar, as was RB Tony Pollard, but you can afford to do that when your defense and special teams scored all the points that you would need for the night. The Cowboy D was downright frightening on Sunday evening, but I would like to see them actually play a strong offensive team before crowning them the Second Coming of the ’85 Bears. Then again, the only other threat in the division might be in Philadelphia, so the powerful defense running rampant over the Giants and the Commanders might be enough.
You’ve got a few days to relax, unless you’re climbing on the Thursday Night Football tilt between those aforementioned Philadelphia Eagles and the Minnesota Vikings. We’re going to avoid those Thursday night games but will be back on Saturday with some more picks for your Week Two entertainment pleasure. There are already some great storylines shaping up in the NFL, and we’ll try to cover some of them on Saturday.
Week One Results – 1-2
Season Results – 1-2
