It has all come down to this. The 2014 World Series of Poker Championship Event’s “November Nine” are all settled in Las Vegas preparing for the resumption of festivities that will, on Tuesday night, crown the next World Champion. But just how will it play out? Let’s take a look into the Poker News Daily crystal ball to see how things might pan out.
Yesterday we reminded you of the men who comprise the “November Nine” by the chip counts. Here’s the way they will actually line up when the cards hit the air on Monday afternoon:
Seat 1: William “Billy Pappas” Pappaconstantinou (United States), 17.5 million
Seat 2: Felix Stephensen (Norway), 32.775 million
Seat 3: Jorryt van Hoof (Netherlands), 38.375 million
Seat 4: Mark Newhouse (United States), 26 million
Seat 5: Andoni Larrabe (Spain), 22.55 million
Seat 6: William Tonking (United States), 15.05 million
Seat 7: Dan Sindelar (United States), 21.2 million
Seat 8: Martin Jacobson (Sweden), 14.9 million
Seat 9: Bruno Politano (Brazil), 12.125 million
Blinds: 200K/400K, 50K Ante
Button: Larrabe
The Early Going
There will be no lack of action when things kick off on Monday afternoon. With van Hoof (hijack) and Newhouse (cutoff) in the key late position slots along with Larrabe on the button, how will they attack the shorter stacks of Tonking and Sindelar (small blind and big blind, respectively)? Will they come out firing in a bid to scrape in some more chips or will they lay back to see what kind of table dynamic emerges from the more than three month layoff since the “November Nine” was determined? It is possible that an elimination might occur here, but not in the first deal of the final table.
I personally see Politano, once the button reaches him, trying to get a bit healthier with his stack and pushing against Pappaconstantinou and Stephensen. Unfortunately, I also see him as the first man out as, without any improvements, he’ll be sitting in the dreaded “push zone” within one rotation of the table. If there’s one guarantee we can make it is that Politano will have to get something going quickly.
The next player I see departing from the tournament will be Sindelar. He is the player who will be in the big blind against that quartet in Seats 2-5 and will face a good deal of heat from them. I don’t believe that he’ll be able to withstand the constant attacks he’ll face and will walk away from the Rio in eighth place.
Jacobson is one of the toughest players in the international poker community, but he hasn’t got the ammunition to be able to fight at this final table and will fall out in seventh place. Tonking will more than likely stay out of everyone’s way and move up to a sixth place finish once Seats 2-5 have him in their crosshairs.
The Middle Game
Now down to five players, expect that Pappaconstantinou (I’m seeing Pappaconstantinou be the player who takes down Politano) will be the next man to be eliminated. As the final four – those men in Seats 2 through 5, Stephensen, van Hoof, Newhouse and Larrabe – look for one more elimination to set up the play for Tuesday night, I see Stephensen making an error in choosing the wrong moment to make a move against van Hoof or Newhouse. That will result in Stephensen’s elimination in fourth place.
Down to three men – Newhouse (who I am seeing as the player to take down Stephensen and holding the chip lead), van Hoof and Larrabe – they will be closer in chip counts than you might expect. This ensures that there will be plenty of play three handed, much like last year’s epic battle between Amir Lehavot, Jay Farber and eventual champion Ryan Riess. Eventually, though, Newhouse will be able to grind down Larrabe and move to heads up against van Hoof on Tuesday night.
Tuesday Night, Championship Night
This will be an interesting duel. Newhouse has been very relaxed throughout the entirety of the Championship Event and he won’t bend to the pressures once he reaches this point. On the other hand, van Hoof has a steely presence that has guided him well through the event. In what will be one of the more memorable matchups ever at a WSOP Championship Event final table – with the lead changing hands several times – I see Newhouse emerging as the next WSOP Championship Event winner, walking off with the $10 million first place prize.
(Prediction)
1. Mark Newhouse
2. Jorryt van Hoof
3. Andoni Larrabe
4. Felix Stephensen
5. William Pappaconstantinou
6. William Tonking
7. Martin Jacobson
8. Dan Sindelar
9. Bruno Politano
We will see how accurate these predictions are come Monday night. ESPN2 will be covering the action on a “live-delay” system (30 minute delay) on Monday beginning at 8PM (Eastern Time) until the final two men are determined. On Tuesday night beginning at 9PM, ESPN will pick up the action until someone has won the title of World Champion.
