When it comes to sports betting, part of the trick is knowing when to break away from the pack – or the favorites – and pick up on the underdogs – otherwise known as the contrarian bet. Picking out these times to take the contrarian play is key to being able to maximize a play. The problem is that, if it fails too often, then you’re left chasing for profits in your “normal” bets.
Contrarian betting examines the trends in the crowd’s wagering and then goes against those choices. Understand that the oddsmakers set these lines to attempt to ensure that they get half the action on one team and half the action on the other. This way, the books not only get the juice from the bets, but the books can also attempt to ensure that they earn half the money wagered from the losing bets (and, in theory, pay off the winners).
For example, this Sunday’s NFL Week Six slate features several games that have sizeable point spreads, such as Miami’s being a two-touchdown favorite over Carolina and the Bills being a 15.5-point choice over the Giants. These are a couple of games that you might examine for a contrarian bet – taking the points and Carolina or New York – because, as we suggested last week, the NFL is a league of parity and teams will keep the score within a touchdown. The fact that both the Dolphins and the Bills are going to be playing at home might temper that bet, however.
The money line bet is also where the contrarian bet will come into play. For example, in those above games, if you think that the Panthers (+660, or a $660 return on a $100 wager) can beat the Dolphins (-1000, or bet $1000 to earn $100) outright, then that would work wonders for your bankroll. If you’re really feeling adventurous, then the +750 you’d earn for an outright Giants win over the Bills (-1200) might be tempting.
If you’re feeling contrarian, then go for it. For my choices this week, however, going to play it normally. I kind of wish we had a chance to have gotten on the San Francisco 49ers against the Cleveland Browns before news of the status of QB Deshaun Watson missing Sunday’s game came out (line went from Niners -3 to -9.5), but you snooze, you lose! As always, all advice is offered for entertainment purposes only, but be ensured that a significant amount of thought has gone into each selection (home team in ALL CAPS).
Detroit Lions (-3) v. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Although the Lions have had an impressive start to the 2023 NFL season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have quietly done well in their own right. Perhaps it is because QB Baker Mayfield has begun to understand that he doesn’t single-handedly have to win every game and has become more of a “game manager” than trying to do too much. Mayfield also has some decent weapons around him in his wide receiver corps and there’s also that vaunted Bucs D.
Look for the Bucs to control the ball and keep Lions QB Jared Goff and Company off the field, keeping the score down and close. If this game were in the domed enclosure of Ford Field in the Motor City, I would certainly be on the Kitties here but, since it is outdoors in the Gulf weather of Tampa and Raymond James Stadium, I’m going to take the points and the Bucs in this game.
PICK: Buccaneers +3
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) v. HOUSTON TEXANS (O/U 42.5)
The Saints, or more particularly QB Derek Carr, have been another surprise during the early segment of the 2023 NFL season. Carr has battled through some injuries, but the team has weathered those storms well to only be a half-game behind the Bucs for the lead in the NFC South. The return of RB Alvin Kamara was a major catalyst for the team and, as Kamara has an angry streak right now, I think the team will ride that anger for a bit longer.
The Texans are on the verge of actually pulling out of their several seasons nosedive. Head coach DeMeco Ryans has got the Texans believing that they can compete with anyone and, so far this season, the team has been doing well behind rookie QB C. J. Stroud. The Texans spanked the Pittsburgh Steelers a couple of weeks ago and were a last-second field goal from beating the Atlanta Falcons last week. If the Texans can get a couple more components, they could be dangerous in the future – but not this Sunday.
PICK: Saints -1.5
PICK: OVER 42.4
