After a month of March that many will never forget, the Final Four for the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship tournament has been set. On Saturday, two teams – one of the longest shots on the board in Florida Atlantic University and the University of Connecticut – punched their tickets to Houston’s NRG Stadium. Sunday saw two more teams – the University of Miami (FL) and another unlikely team in San Diego State University – earn their right to play for the National Championship. The early favorite is UConn, and they are prohibitive favorites across the board.
UConn Top Choice of Final Four
Of a survey of five different betting outlets – FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, PointsBet, and DraftKings – UConn is the overwhelming favorite of the NCAA Final Four teams. Four of the outlets have UConn as a -125 favorite (you would have to be $125 to get a $100 return), but PointsBet only has them as a -120 favorite. They are the only option on the table where you must wager more and get less of a return.
UConn’s pathway to the Final Four was a bit easier than some might have thought. After defeating Iona in the first round, #4 UConn was able to beat the #5 seed, St. Mary’s, to earn their spot in the Sweet Sixteen. After Arkansas stunned the #1 seed in the West Region, the Kansas Jayhawks, UConn said “thank you” and bumped off the upstart Razorbacks. UConn then dismissed perennial Cinderella Gonzaga (who had defeated #2 UCLA) to arrange for hotel accommodations in Houston next weekend.
Surprising Aztecs the Second Choice
The touts are all over the San Diego State Aztecs, offering a +370 average over the five operators (a $100 bet would return a $370 win). Caesars Sportsbook is offering the Mountain West Conference champions at a juicy +400, while the others are arrayed between +350 and +380. Considering the opposition that SDSU will have, a good bet on them to reach the Championship Game might be in line.
San Diego State was a team that many targeted as a 12/5 upset possibility, but the Aztecs handled the College of Charleston easily. From there, SDSU knocked off another upstart, Furman, before facing their most serious challenge in the #1 team in the NCAA tournament, Alabama. The Aztecs were able to knock off the top team in the nation and scraped by a scrappy Creighton Bluejays team to win the South Region championship.
Hurricanes Blow Opposition Away
The Miami Hurricanes have handled every team that has come their way and handled them with ease, but they sure aren’t getting any respect from the books. Currently, the aggregate of the five operators has the ‘Canes at a +480 option, with BetMGM pushing them up to +500. This is surprisingly disrespectful since Miami, the regular season and tournament champion in the Atlantic Coast Conference, has not been slowed down by anyone yet.
Kent State and the Indiana Hoosiers were the first to feel the wrath of the Hurricanes, but they weren’t done there. Miami would next take down the #1 seed in the Midwest, the University of Houston, who was looking to play for a National Championship in their hometown. Instead, they will be playing host to the same Miami team who beat them and the Texas Longhorns to reach the NCAA Final Four.
Florida Who?
The most unlikely of the Final Four combatants is arguably the one that NOBODY saw in this position back in November when the season started. Florida Atlantic University won the Conference USA tournament and, as the highest seed of the Final Four teams, is being handed the longest odds of winning the National Championship. DraftKings has the Owls at +650, but the overall aggregate of the five operators is +600.
FAU, to put it simply, has beaten whoever has been in front of them. They topped Memphis in the opening round, then shut down Goliath-beaters Farleigh Dickinson to make the NCAA Sweet Sixteen. There they just completely flummoxed two talented major conference teams in the SEC’s Tennessee Volunteers and the Big 12’s Kansas State Wildcats. The slipper still fits Cinderella as they head to Space City with dreams of a title still in their heads.
Who Wins?
In the first game on Saturday, the Owls of Florida Atlantic will see if they can handle the “bully ball” from the Aztecs of SDSU. The sharps are giving some respect to FAU, giving them one and the hook (+1.5) against the California boys. The key to watch here is the over/under (131.5). If the score goes under, then FAU may pull off the upset outright. Taking the points will be the thing here, but I do believe that the over will be hit and SDSU will win.
Unlike their brethren from Boca, the Hurricanes are getting NO respect. They are a 5.5-point underdog to the Huskies, but the physicality of the Miami squad could come into play here. I see Miami pulling off the upset here. As an aside, the O/U is 149.5 – that is a tough betting line and it may be one you want to stay away from.
In the National Championship, we have San Diego State University versus the University of Miami. In what will be a tremendously physical game (both teams know where the weight room is), I see Miami cutting down the nets come Monday night.
